Ed Balls stokes election fever

  A fug-clearing moment this morning on the Today programme when Gordon Brown's chief lieutenant appeared to change the official line on an October election.

Until now, Brown has insisted he is "getting on with the job" and refused to say anything about the polls. So for any government minister, nevermind mind his closest ally, to say Mr Brown is "looking very carefully at the events of this week" (suggesting a decision imminently) and describing the decision as a "gamble", must be significant.

Balls' words are strikingly different from his comments to today's Daily Telegraph, that "[Brown] hasn't told me [when the election willl be] and it is his decision". Below is a hasty transcript. But the words do not capture two important elements of the interview, discussed afterwards.

Interviewer Sarah Montague: [Should there be] fixed term Parliaments?
EB [Chuckling] That is not an issue that I have looked at that I have looked at as part of my families brief.
SM Sure, you laugh, but everybody is wondering at whether is going to be an early election
EB I'm laughing because it is perhaps the most contrived link in an interview, but it is brilliant, nonetheless. I think think Gordon Brown will be looking very closely at the events of this week, and he will think that on schools, on the NHS and on fighting crime, we are...
SM You know him well, is Gordon Brown
EB It's a very interesting question as to where the gamble really lies. I think he will be looking at the facts but he will also be asking whether on the key issues we are setting out our priorities and ask whether we are establishing the choice of visions for the future...
SM .. Can I ...
EB ... which is not where the Conservative Party has been
SM Can I pick up, Where does the gamble lie?
EB Sorry?
SM Where does the gamble lie. You picked me up on my use
[Silence]
SM Do go ahead...
[Silence]
EB Sorry Sarah, over the last, er, few months, as he has established his leadership and dealt with the crises that were thrown at him. Clearly, over the last few months as Gordon Brown has established his leadership, as he's dealt with some of the difficult crises which have been thrown at him and at our country... not only did public opinion polls strengthen but underlying support for his leadership has strengthened as well.

Two important points: The first was the way the Today interviewer frustratingly interrupted him in the middle of the "crucial week" answer, somewhat muddying the reply. The second is that Balls appeared to regret the use of the world "gamble" - pressed on what this meant, there were two painful silences, as if the penny was dropping.

So what does all of this mean? Is it a) An incautious set of remarks or even a bit of a gaffe, b) a deliberate attempt to raise expectations to stir the Tories which has little or no bearing on the actual decision or c) a true reflection of a shift inside the Brown camp. We'll see.

Comments

[Denver Watt]

I think Balls comments are confusing
, maybe he like Brown is unsure. Or
maybe his thinking reflects his nane. Who knows?

[Chris Paul]

Believable semi-deliberate gaffe and wind up from inveterate gaffer and wind upper. True class.

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